Zito and the Playoffs

There's room for 11 pitchers on the post-season roster. That, coupled with the fact that the Giants have the ability to shuffle the roster again should they advance past their first series against the Atlanta Braves, gives all fans the possibility to play mad scientist and create a team perfectly suited to slay this particular beast.

When I go into the lab and look at the five man rotation, a few things stand out. Four actually. Four solid starters. Let's see, that leaves...

Barry Zito, I see you're a big elephant, so you might as well come into the room. Why don't you have a seat so we can pick you and your salary apart?

The current shakiest starter in the rotation is an easy target right now for fans who don't want to see him muttering to himself after giving up early runs. And although before the regular season stretch run I was pleading with the Giants to not mess with success and leave the rotation alone, I am starting to buckle. I think that in a shorter, best of five series we don't need - nor do we want - Zito out there. And when there's Lopez, Affeldt and Runzler to choose from we don't even need him in the bullpen as a lefty.

My "everyone has a couple of bad start now and then" disposition turned sour shortly after the wretched Padres game. I try not to be a fan who judges based only on recent performance, so I looked at Zito's last ten decisions, going back to the beginning of August: (2-8, 47.2 IP, 6.60 ERA, 24 BB, 53 H). That's the kind of skid that makes Tim Lincecum's August look like Tim Lincecum's September. Also mixed into this time period is Zito's relief appearance in the Cincinnati game they almost came back from: Pressure situation, and he gets the loss in that game. It's not a bump in the road - it's a long term slide and the playoffs is not the time to drag yourself out of the quicksand. You need to be fully out to start a playoff game.

I can't quite picture the Giants sitting Zito in real life yet, but he may have finally lost Bochy's trust in that Padres game. I give him about a 50-50 chance for survival, and for a highly paid veteran, that's not good. And it's not just Zito, it's the circumstances. Bumgarner's last start was also during a stretch where every game was a game that the Giants needed to win, and he responded to the pressure. He's good enough to be our Game Four Starter. If he hadn't, or if this were a best of seven series, it would increase Zito's odds to make the roster, but right now, they can afford to sit him. What they can't afford is for him to lay another egg.