Predicting the Unpredictable

As I did before the NLDS and the NLCS, I visited ESPN's website to check out what their resident experts had to say about the upcoming World Series and... Surprise! They unanimously predicted that the Texas Rangers would win the series.

The experts are going out on a limb here and reasoning that the Rangers have a better offense than the Giants. Hmm - I hadn't thought of it that way. That's some hard-hitting sports journalism. Surely, you might think, the Giants have had dominant starting pitching all season, so they have the edge there, right? Not so fast, my dear simple-minded fan. Here's another edgy insight for you: The Rangers 1-2-3 might be just as good. In fact, their number one starter is making history in the post season and might have a slight edge over Tim Lincecum. This is some real, Bob Costasy, Outside the Linesy type stuff.

I don't really disagree with this assessment of the two teams, but I am tired of hearing it. And it's not just because I'm a homer who doesn't like to hear anything bad the Giants. I know the Giants have their weaknesses. I will fully admit that, with a few exceptions, the Giants are sketchy defensively, show the patience of a kid on Christmas morning at the plate, and on the basepaths, most of them look like plumbers running to catch the van after they forgot to put on the parking brake. I would feel a lot more confident about their chances in the World Series if these things weren't true.

But the Braves series and the Phillies series didn't play out according to the conventional assessment of the teams, and I don't think this one will either. I think the national writers and experts are finally starting the realize that Bochy is a shrewd game manager, but could they - or anyone - have forseen him being able to stitch together a patchwork quilt of Affeldt, Bumgarner, Lopez, Lincecum, and Wilson for the win after Sanchez' meltdown? Two starters, two bullpen guys and your closer for seven innings of scoreless relief?

If one improbable thing can happen, then why can't they just keep happening? Here are my predictions for the World Series, which I maintain are just as probable as any other result:

- The Giants beat Cliff Lee in Game One. He's been dominant, but he's a strike thrower. He doesn't pitch out of the zone, but he should because the Giants are hacks and that's what they swing and miss at: garbage pitches out of the zone. Juan Uribe and Cody Ross, who both have good lifetime numbers on Lee, go deep.

- The Giants go 2-0 at AT & T, partly because of the advantage they have there but mostly because Matt Cain. Josh Hamilton's drives continue to die in triples alley, and in the late innings he is vexed by Javi Lopez. After two games, Hamilton is 1 for 8 with two strikeouts.

-In Texas, the homefield advantage is neutralized in the same way it was in Philly (The Giants hit four home runs in Citizens' Bank Park to the Phillies' four). They outhomer the Rangers in the three games there four to two, on their way to winning games four and five.

So, yes, I'm saying Giants in five. Improbable, but would you really be that surprised?